文章基本信息

标题：RELATIVE RISK OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) IN SOUTH SULAWESI PROVINCE, INDONESIA: BAYESIAN SPATIAL MODELING
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作者：Aswi Aswi ; Andi Mauliyana ; Muhammad Arif Tiro 等
期刊名称：MEDIA STATISTIKA
印刷版ISSN：1979-3693
电子版ISSN：2477-0647
出版年度：2022
卷号：14
期号：2
页码：158-169
DOI：10.14710/medstat.14.2.158-169
语种：English
出版社：MEDIA STATISTIKA
摘要：The Covid-19 has exploded in the world since late 2019. South Sulawesi Province has the highest number of Covid-19 cases outside Java Island in Indonesia. This paper aims to determine the most suitable Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) localised models in modeling the relative risk (RR) of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Bayesian spatial CAR localised models with different hyperpriors were performed adopting a Poisson distribution for the confirmed Covid-19 counts to examine the grouping of Covid-19 cases. All confirmed cases of Covid-19 (19 March 2020-18 February 2021) for each district were included. Overall, Bayesian CAR localised model with G = 5 with a hyperprior IG (1, 0.1) is the preferred model to estimate the RR based on the two criteria used. Makassar and Toraja Utara have the highest and the lowest RR, respectively. The group formed in the localised model is influenced by the magnitude of the mean and variance in the count data between areas. Using suitable Bayesian spatial CAR localised models enables the identification of high-risk areas of Covid-19 cases. This localised model could be applied in other case studies.