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标题：Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
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作者：Amadio, Mattia ; Essenfelder, Arthur H. ; Bagli, Stefano 等
期刊名称：Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
电子版ISSN：2195-9269
出版年度：2022
卷号：22
期号：1
页码：265-286
DOI：10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022
语种：English
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：The combined effect of global sea level rise and land subsidence phenomenaposes a major threat to coastal settlements. Coastal flooding events areexpected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potentialeconomic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of thepopulation and economic activities are located along the low-lying coastalplain of the North Adriatic coast, one of the most sensitive areas to relative sealevel changes. Over the last half a century, this stretch of coast hasexperienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component ofwhich was land subsidence; in the forthcoming decades, climate-induced sealevel rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundationhazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked withextreme sea level scenarios, under both historical conditions and sea levelrise projections in 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model ontwo pilot sites located along the North Adriatic coast of Emilia-Romagna:Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative extreme sea levelscenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seasiderenovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damagemodel to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios,and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changesin the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluatedby means of cost–benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitabilityof the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due toincreased probability of intense flooding in the near future.