文章基本信息

标题：Models and muddles in the COVID-19 pandemic
本地全文：下载
作者：Farai Nyabadza ; Alex Broadbent ; Charis Harley 等
期刊名称：South African Journal of Science
印刷版ISSN：0038-2353
电子版ISSN：1996-7489
出版年度：2021
卷号：117
期号：9-10
页码：1-4
DOI：10.17159/sajs.2021/9506
语种：English
出版社：The Foundation for Research Development
摘要：The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity for scientists to showcase their skill and the impact that good science can have on society. However, not all scientists have risen to the occasion with the sense of responsibility and accountability that their work deserves. Scientists worldwide have shown, and continue to show, great enthusiasm regarding the use of specific scientific tools, mainly modelling and predictive analytics, to estimate how the virus spreads and behaves and to assess interventions against counterfactual scenarios. In this Commentary, we question whether the application of these tools has always been appropriately managed by discussing the underlying elements of modelling which need to be understood and evaluated for results to be meaningful and credible.
关键词：mathematical models;epidemiology;infectious diseases;public health;COVID-19