文章基本信息

标题：Numerical Estimation of the Final Size of the Spread of COVID-19 in West Java Province, Indonesia
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作者：Subiyanto ; Yuyun Hidayat ; Eddy Afrianto 等
期刊名称：Engineering Letters
印刷版ISSN：1816-093X
电子版ISSN：1816-0948
出版年度：2021
卷号：29
期号：3
页码：1015-1019
语种：English
出版社：Newswood Ltd
摘要：The purpose of this paper is to predict the final size of the COVID-19 in West Java Province, Indonesia. This paper describes the mathematical modeling and dynamics of a COVID-19 by using the SIR epidemic model. To predict the final size of the positive cases of COVID-19 that occur, the minimum function of the final number of susceptible andrecovered is performed. The numerical simulation was performed with data after West Java Governmentimplemented Large-Scale Social Restrictions. Based on the numerical results is founded the final size of the COVID-19 in West Java Province is 22743 people. This number might have been greater if the Government did not carry out Large-Scale Social Restrictions.
关键词：Minimum function; Large-Scale Social Restrictions; recovered; susceptible; SIR epidemic model