文章基本信息

标题：FORECASTING ARECA NUT MARKET PRICES USING THE ARIMA MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF INDIA
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作者：ABHAYA K. KUMAR ; PRAKASH PINTO ; IQBAL THONSE HAWALDAR 等
期刊名称：Analele Universităţii Constantin Brâncuşi din Târgu Jiu : Seria Economie
印刷版ISSN：1844-7007
出版年度：2021
期号：2
页码：4-18
语种：English
出版社：Academica Brâncuşi
摘要：India is the major producer of Areca nut in the world. Volatile demand and price are the major challenges for the Areca nut growers in India. The use of time series models to manage the price risk has become the interest of academicians today. This paper deals with developing an appropriate model to predict the prices of a new variety of Areca nut in Karnataka using monthly price data for the period January 2009 to December 2018. Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology is used to develop the model. Along with ARIMA estimates, log-likelihood, Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criterion statistics are also estimated to decide on the appropriate model. ACF and PACF correlograms for residuals of ARIMA are used to do the diagnostic check of the selected ARIMA model. Appropriate model to forecast the new variety Areca nut price is ARIMA (3, 1, 3)