文章基本信息

标题：Estimation of Daily Reproduction Numbers during the COVID-19 Outbreak
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作者：Jacques Demongeot ; Kayode Oshinubi ; Mustapha Rachdi 等
期刊名称：Computation
电子版ISSN：2079-3197
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：10
页码：109
DOI：10.3390/computation9100109
语种：English
出版社：MDPI Publishing
摘要：(1) Background: The estimation of daily reproduction numbers throughout the contagiousness period is rarely considered, and only their sum R<sub>0</sub> is calculated to quantify the contagiousness level of an infectious disease. (2) Methods: We provide the equation of the discrete dynamics of the epidemic’s growth and obtain an estimation of the daily reproduction numbers by using a deconvolution technique on a series of new COVID-19 cases. (3) Results: We provide both simulation results and estimations for several countries and waves of the COVID-19 outbreak. (4) Discussion: We discuss the role of noise on the stability of the epidemic’s dynamics. (5) Conclusions: We consider the possibility of improving the estimation of the distribution of daily reproduction numbers during the contagiousness period by taking into account the heterogeneity due to several host age classes.