文章基本信息

标题：Strategic basin and delta planning increases the resilience of the Mekong Delta under future uncertainty
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作者：R. J. P. Schmitt ; M. Giuliani ; S. Bizzi 等
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2021
卷号：118
期号：36
DOI：10.1073/pnas.2026127118
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Significance Globally, river deltas, which support some of the planet’s most productive agroeconomic systems and half a billion livelihoods, are at risk of being drowned by rising sea levels and accelerated subsidence. Whether delta land falls below sea level will depend on land and water management in the delta, sediment supply from the upstream basin, and global climate change. Those drivers cover multiple scales and domains and are rapidly changing, uncertain, and interconnected, which makes finding robust strategies to increase the resilience of river deltas challenging. Herein, we demonstrate an approach to identify planning levers that can increase the resilience of river deltas under a wide range of future conditions for the 40,000-km 2 Mekong Delta in Southeast Asia. The climate resilience of river deltas is threatened by rising sea levels, accelerated land subsidence, and reduced sediment supply from contributing river basins. Yet, these uncertain and rapidly changing threats are rarely considered in conjunction. Here we provide an integrated assessment, on basin and delta scales, to identify key planning levers for increasing the climate resilience of the Mekong Delta. We find, first, that 23 to 90% of this unusually productive delta might fall below sea level by 2100, with the large uncertainty driven mainly by future management of groundwater pumping and associated land subsidence. Second, maintaining sediment supply from the basin is crucial under all scenarios for maintaining delta land and enhancing the climate resilience of the system. We then use a bottom-up approach to identify basin development scenarios that are compatible with maintaining sediment supply at current levels. This analysis highlights, third, that strategic placement of hydropower dams will be more important for maintaining sediment supply than either projected increases in sediment yields or improved sediment management at individual dams. Our results demonstrate 1) the need for integrated planning across basin and delta scales, 2) the role of river sediment management as a nature-based solution to increase delta resilience, and 3) global benefits from strategic basin management to maintain resilient deltas, especially under uncertain and changing conditions.
关键词：enMekong;river deltas;resilience;sediment;global environmental change