文章基本信息

标题：Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: chasing the Supercyclone Amphan
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作者：Khan, Md. Jamal Uddin ; Durand, Fabien ; Bertin, Xavier 等
期刊名称：Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
电子版ISSN：2195-9269
出版年度：2021
卷号：21
期号：8
页码：2523-2541
DOI：10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021
语种：English
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling complexity impede accurate storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent Supercyclone Amphan in real time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making over the Bengal delta shorelines as well as over other similar cyclone-prone regions.