文章基本信息

标题：Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification
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作者：Qiuzhen Zhong ; Jingjing Wang ; Xuejie Meng 等
期刊名称：Space Weather
印刷版ISSN：1542-7390
出版年度：2019
卷号：17
期号：5
页码：709-726
DOI：10.1029/2018SW001915
语种：English
出版社：American Geophysical Union
摘要：Solar energetic protons (SEPs) can cause radiation damage to satellites. The Space Environment Prediction Center of China defines the start of a SEP event as the time when three consecutive instances of the 5-min-averaged integral flux of >10 MeV protons equal or exceed the 10 proton flux unit threshold. In this study, we analyzed the 5-min-averaged soft X-ray flux and the differential and integral proton flux obtained by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites for the period from January 1990 to September 2017 and developed SEP prediction models and their products. The statistical models take one or two data products and the given thresholds as the predictor and predict whether a SEP event will occur or not in the next 24 hr. The quality of the forecast models was measured by comparing the model results against certain verification metrics. Our model taking the products of 5-min-averaged integral flux of >10 MeV protons and long wavelength of soft X-ray flux as predictors can provide a probability of detection of 0.80 (152/190), a false alarm ratio of 0.26 (53/205), and an average warning time of 2.6 hr for the correctly predicted events. In addition, the model can provide a critical success index of 0.63, a Gilbert skill score of 0.62, and a Heidke skill score of 0.76.