文章基本信息

标题：Application of decision-making to a solar flare forecast in the cost-loss ratio situation
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作者：Jongyeob Park ; Yong-Jae Moon ; Seonghwan Choi 等
期刊名称：Space Weather
印刷版ISSN：1542-7390
出版年度：2017
卷号：15
期号：5
页码：704-712
DOI：10.1002/2016SW001532
语种：English
出版社：American Geophysical Union
摘要：The conventional skill scores for evaluating flare forecast models do not take into account the effect of various cost-loss ratios. For the first time, we have applied a decision-making based on skill scores to a flare forecast model in cost-loss ratio situations. For this study, we consider a flare forecast model which provides daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of probability threshold (Pth) for the decision-making. A value score (VS) is calculated as a function of cost-loss ratio (C/L) and Pth, which are linearly correlated with each other. The maximum values of VS are 0.57, 0.37, and 0.61 for C-, M-, and X-class flare, respectively. We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine C/L and Pth for the better decision-making in similar forecast models.