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标题：Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit
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作者：R. J. Boynton ; M. A. Balikhin ; D. G. Sibeck 等
期刊名称：Space Weather
印刷版ISSN：1542-7390
出版年度：2016
卷号：14
期号：10
页码：846-860
DOI：10.1002/2016SW001506
语种：English
出版社：American Geophysical Union
摘要：Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.