文章基本信息

标题：Real-time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >100 MeV solar energetic proton events
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作者：Marlon Núñez
期刊名称：Space Weather
印刷版ISSN：1542-7390
出版年度：2015
卷号：13
期号：11
页码：807-819
DOI：10.1002/2015SW001256
语种：English
出版社：American Geophysical Union
摘要：A new model for predicting the occurrence of >100 MeV solar energetic proton (SEP) events and the first hours of the >100 MeV integral proton flux is presented. This model uses a novel approach based on the lag correlation between strong positive derivatives of X-ray flux and proton flux. The new model has been validated with data from January 1994 to September 2013, obtaining a probability of detection of all >100 MeV SEP events of 80.85%, a false alarm ratio of 29.62%, and an average warning time of 1 h and 6 min. The model identifies the associated flare and active region. Currently, there is no other automatic empirical or physics-based system able to predict SEP events of energies in the interval of 100 MeV to ~430 MeV (lower GLE cutoff according to Clem and Dorman (2000)). This paper also proposes the combined use of the new prediction model and the existing one for predicting >10 MeV SEP events. The combined SEP prediction models have been developed to improve mitigation of adverse effects on near-Earth and interplanetary missions.