文章基本信息

标题：UFCORIN: A fully automated predictor of solar flares in GOES X-ray flux
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作者：Takayuki Muranushi ; Takuya Shibayama ; Yuko Hada Muranushi 等
期刊名称：Space Weather
印刷版ISSN：1542-7390
出版年度：2015
卷号：13
期号：11
页码：778-796
DOI：10.1002/2015SW001257
语种：English
出版社：American Geophysical Union
摘要：We have developed UFCORIN, a platform for studying and automating space weather prediction. Using our system we have tested 6160 different combinations of Solar Dynamic Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data as input data, and simulated the prediction of GOES X-ray flux for 2 years (2011–2012) with 1 h cadence. We have found that direct comparison of the true skill statistic (TSS) from small cross-validation sets is ill posed and used the standard scores (z) of the TSS to compare the performance of the various prediction strategies. The z of a strategy is a stochastic variable of the stochastically chosen cross-validation data set, and the z for the three strategies best at predicting X-, ≥M-, and ≥C-class flares are better than the average z of the 6160 strategies by 2.3σ, 2.1σ, and 3.8σ confidence levels, respectively. The best three TSS values were 0.75 ± 0.07, 0.48 ± 0.02, and 0.56 ± 0.04, respectively.