文章基本信息

标题：The heliospheric magnetic flux, solar wind proton flux, and cosmic ray intensity during the coming solar minimum
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作者：Charles W. Smith ; K. G. McCracken ; Nathan A. Schwadron 等
期刊名称：Space Weather
印刷版ISSN：1542-7390
出版年度：2014
卷号：12
期号：7
页码：499-507
DOI：10.1002/2014SW001067
语种：English
出版社：American Geophysical Union
摘要：Recent papers have linked the heliospheric magnetic flux to the sunspot cycle with good correlation observed between prediction and observation. Other papers have shown a strong correlation between magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux from coronal holes. We combine these efforts with an expectation that the sunspot activity of the approaching solar minimum will resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum and predict that the magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux over the coming decade will be lower than at any time during the space age. Using these predictions and established theory, we also predict record high galactic cosmic ray intensities over the same years. The analysis shown here is a prediction of global space climate change within which space weather operates. It predicts a new parameter regime for the transient space weather behavior that can be expected during the coming decade.