文章基本信息

标题：Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
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作者：Mijat Kustudic ; Ben Niu ; Qianying Liu 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2021
卷号：11
DOI：10.1038/s41598-021-95336-5
语种：English
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：The first human infected with the Covid-19 virus was traced to a seafood market in Wuhan, China. Research shows that there are comparable types of viruses found in different and mutually distant areas. This raises several questions: what if the virus originated in another location? How will future waves of epidemics behave if they originate from different locations with a smaller/larger population than Wuhan? To explore these questions, we implement an agent-based model within fractal cities. Cities radiate gravitational social attraction based on their Zipfian population. The probability and predictability of contagion events are analyzed by examining fractal dimensions and lacunarity. Results show that weak gravitational forces of small locations help dissipate infections across country quicker if the pathogen had originated from that location. Gravitational forces of large cities help contain infections within them if they are the starting locations for the pathogen. Greater connectedness and symmetry allow for a more predictable epidemic outcome since there are no obstructions to spreading. To test our hypothesis, we implement datasets from two countries, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and two diseases, Ebola and Covid-19, and obtain the same results.