文章基本信息

标题：Did exposure to COVID-19 affect vote choice in the 2020 presidential election?
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作者：Marco Mendoza Aviña ; Semra Sevi
期刊名称：Research & Politics
印刷版ISSN：2053-1680
电子版ISSN：2053-1680
出版年度：2021
卷号：8
期号：3
DOI：10.1177/20531680211041505
语种：English
摘要：An important body of literature shows that citizens evaluate elected officials based on their past performance. In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, the conventional wisdom in both media and academic discourse was that Donald Trump would have been a two-term president absent an unprecedented, global force majeure. In this research note, we address a simple question: did exposure to COVID-19 impact vote choice in the 2020 presidential election? Using data from the Cooperative Election Study, we find that Trump’s vote share decreased because of COVID-19. However, there is no evidence suggesting that Joe Biden loses the election when no voter reports exposure to coronavirus cases and deaths. These negligible effects are found at both the national and state levels, and are robust to an exhaustive set of confounders across model specifications.