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标题：Optimizing Spatial Allocation of COVID‐19 Vaccine by Agent‐Based Spatiotemporal Simulations
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作者：Shuli Zhou ; Suhong Zhou ; Zhong Zheng 等
期刊名称：GeoHealth
印刷版ISSN：2471-1403
电子版ISSN：2471-1403
出版年度：2021
卷号：5
期号：6
页码：1-16
DOI：10.1029/2021GH000427
语种：English
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
摘要：AbstractOptimizing allocation of vaccine, a highly scarce resource, is an urgent and critical issue during fighting against on‐going COVID‐19 epidemic. Prior studies suggested that vaccine should be prioritized by age and risk groups, but few of them have considered the spatial prioritization strategy. This study aims to examine the spatial heterogeneity of COVID‐19 transmission in the city naturally, and optimize vaccine distribution strategies considering spatial prioritization. We proposed an integrated spatial model of agent‐based model and SEIR (susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered). It simulated spatiotemporal process of COVID‐19 transmission in a realistic urban context. Individual movements were represented by trajectories of 8,146 randomly sampled mobile phone users on December 28, 2016 in Guangzhou, China, 90% of whom aged 18–60. Simulations were conducted under seven scenarios. Scenarios 1 and 2 examined natural spreading process of COVID‐19 and its final state of herd immunity. Scenarios 3–6 applied four vaccination strategies (random strategy, age strategy, space strategy, and space & age strategy), and identified the optimal vaccine strategy. Scenario 7 assessed the most appropriate vaccine coverage. The results demonstrates herd immunity is heterogeneously distributed in space, thus, vaccine intervention strategies should be spatialized. Among four strategies, space & age strategy is substantially most efficient, with 7.7% fewer in attack rate and 44 days longer than random strategy under 20% vaccine uptake. Space & age strategy requires 30%–40% vaccine coverage to control the epidemic, while the coverage for a random strategy is 60%–70% as a comparison. The application of our research would greatly improves the effectiveness of the vaccine usability.Plain Language SummaryWe examined the degree of spatial heterogeneity of COVID‐19 transmission in the city naturally. We identified the optimal vaccine strategy considering spatial heterogeneity. Our study demonstrates the importance of space in optimizing vaccines allocation and highlights that space & age strategy greatly improves the effectiveness of the vaccine usability. Our methodology can help global policymakers develop optimal vaccine strategies based on their own specific spatial situations against on‐going COVID‐19 epidemic.Key PointsSpatial heterogeneity in herd immunity rate has been identifiedSpace & age strategy is substantially considered as the most efficient strategy among four vaccination strategies30%–40% vaccine coverage are needed to control the epidemic under space & age strategy, while 60%–70% for a random strategy as a comparison