文章基本信息

标题：Probabilistic Modelling of COVID-19 Dynamic in the Context of Madagascar
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作者：Angelo Raherinirina ; Tsilefa Stefana Fandresena ; Aimé Richard Hajalalaina 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation
印刷版ISSN：2327-4018
电子版ISSN：2327-4026
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：3
页码：211-230
DOI：10.4236/ojmsi.2021.93014
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling the propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Madagascar, with all its specificities. With the strategy of the Malagasy state, which consists of isolating all suspected cases and hospitalized confirmed case, we get an epidemic model with seven compartments: susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), Asymptomatic (A), Hospitalized (H), Cured (C) and Death (D). In addition to the classical deterministic models used in epidemiology, the stochastic model offers a natural representation of the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. We inferred the models with the official data provided by the COVID-19 Command Center (CCO) of Madagascar, between March and August 2020. The basic reproduction number R0 and the other parameters were estimated with a Bayesian approach. We developed an algorithm that allows having a temporal estimate of this number with confidence intervals. The estimated values are slightly lower than the international references. Generally, we were able to obtain a simple but effective model to describe the spread of the disease.
关键词：Modified SEIR Model;COVID-19 Madagascar;Basic Reproduction Number;Markov Chain Continuous Time