文章基本信息

标题：Ultra-short-term Radiation Prediction based on FY-4 Satellite Cloud Images and Artificial Neural Network
本地全文：下载
作者：Dongyu Jia ; Xiaoying Nie ; Fuyuan Gao 等
期刊名称：E3S Web of Conferences
印刷版ISSN：2267-1242
电子版ISSN：2267-1242
出版年度：2021
卷号：293
页码：1-4
DOI：10.1051/e3sconf/202129303017
语种：English
出版社：EDP Sciences
摘要：Surface solar radiation is affected by many random mutation factors, which makes the ultra-short-term prediction face great challenges. In this paper, the surface radiation observation station in the northwest (Dunhuang) desert area with broad PV prospects is selected as the research object. The input parameters of the test sample are: cloud forecast value, reflectivity and brightness temperature value of a satellite cloud image closest to the forecast time. The MATLAB software is used to model the prediction program and to predict the surface solar radiation in the next 10 minutes. A combined algorithm of satellite cloud images and neural network is applied to predict surface solar radiation for the next 10 minutes and is compared with the measured surface solar radiation. The model is a lightweight calculation model, it satisfies the calculation precision of engineering requirements. The results show that the diurnal variation trend of measured and predicted radiation values is basically the same. Among them, the prediction accuracy of the model for cloudy days is higher, while for snowy days with more abrupt changes, the prediction error of abrupt points is larger. The model can provide reference for ultra-short-term prediction of surface radiation.