文章基本信息

标题：Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil
本地全文：下载
作者：Cristiano Santos ; Ivan Castelar
期刊名称：Economia Aplicada
印刷版ISSN：1413-8050
电子版ISSN：1980-5330
出版年度：2016
卷号：20
期号：1
DOI：10.11606/1413-8050/ea134823
语种：Portuguese
出版社：Economia Aplicada
摘要：This paper evaluates four core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank of Brazil; that is, the exclusion indicator, the exclusion ex2 indicator, the smoothed trimmed mean and the double weight indicator. Econometric time series models were used to assess the unbiasedness, the dynamic adjustment, and the predictive ability of core inflation indicators. The results show that only the exclusion ex2 and smoothed trimmed mean were unbiased and they can serve as indicators of dynamic adjustment for in- flation. With respect to forecast ability, one can say that the core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank are not suitable to forecast long-term inflation