文章基本信息

标题：Non-linear forecasting of the state of a socio-eco-oriented innovative economy in the conditions of systemic crises
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作者：Sultan Ramazanov ; Oleksandr Chernyak ; Bogdan Tishkov 等
期刊名称：SHS Web of Conferences
印刷版ISSN：2416-5182
电子版ISSN：2261-2424
出版年度：2019
卷号：65
页码：1-7
DOI：10.1051/shsconf/20196506007
语种：English
出版社：EDP Sciences
摘要：The paper deals with the problem of sustainable development and innovative integral modeling and forecasting approach in the management of technogenic objects and processes (TOP) as a system of socio-eco-economic and humanitarian type (SEEH). Based on the use of information and innovation technologies in order to forecast the non-linear dynamics of eco-economic and socio-humanitarian systems, integrated stochastic models of objects and processes were developed and studied, suitable for the conditions of systemic crises. The paper handles the aspect of integration of 4 business and functioning areas of the modern complex systems. It proposes a general conceptual integrated model, generalized synergetic model of dynamics, considering different uncertainty (stochastic and chaotic components). The paper examines the aspects of integration of multiple business areas and sectors of the modern complex systems functioning and developing under the present conditions of non-linearity, instability and crises. An integrated stochastic non-linear phase-space growth dynamics model was developed and studied to forecast the development of the state of an innovative economy. The paper looks into the aspects of activity management of the modern complex systems functioning and developing under the present conditions of instability.