文章基本信息

标题：Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach
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作者：Amrendra Pandey ; Jagadish Shettigar ; Amarnath Bose 等
期刊名称：SAGE Open
印刷版ISSN：2158-2440
电子版ISSN：2158-2440
出版年度：2021
卷号：11
DOI：10.1177/21582440211033826
语种：English
出版社：SAGE Publications
摘要：This study attempts to evaluate the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) based on an investigation of the policy statements. The analysis based on text mining of the central bank’s monetary policy statements seeks to unravel the information considered by the central bank and the processes followed in making its inflation forecasts. The findings indicate that although the RBI examined high-frequency economic indicators, its inflation forecasts have generally been off the mark. Specifically, the monetary policy committee failed to foresee the sharp disinflation that followed the demonetization announced on November 8, 2016. This failure resulted in a high real interest rate regime that dealt a blow to the economy staggering under the effects of demonetization. Our research findings show that the monetary policy governance practices need to be refined and better aligned to economic realities, particularly under the RBI’s new monetary policy framework.