文章基本信息

标题：Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?
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作者：Angelo C. Gurgel ; John Reilly ; Elodie Blanc 等
期刊名称：iScience
印刷版ISSN：2589-0042
出版年度：2021
卷号：24
期号：7
页码：1-25
DOI：10.1016/j.isci.2021.102772
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：SummaryLand use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4emissions from agriculture activities, and CO2emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under land use forcing scenarios.Graphical abstractDisplay OmittedHighlights•Land use changes in the US depend on global economic and environmental pressures•Pasture and grassland expand under higher economic and population growth•Increase in livestock and fertilizer use brings challenging environmental outcomes•Complex systems interactions where resilience in one system shifts forces to othersEarth sciences; Agricultural science; Agricultural economics; Land use.