文章基本信息

标题：Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
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作者：Gaetano Campi ; Maria Vittoria Mazziotti ; Antonio Valletta 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2021
卷号：11
DOI：10.1038/s41598-021-91950-5
语种：English
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number R t(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested), separated by the critical regime. Here we show that to quantify the Covid-19 spreading rate with containment measures there is a need of a 3D expanded parameter space phase diagram built by the combination of R t(t) and doubling time T d(t). In this space we identify the Covid-19 dynamics in Italy and its administrative Regions. The supercritical regime is mathematically characterized by (i) the power law of T d vs. [R t(t) − 1