文章基本信息

标题：From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India
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作者：Vijay Victor ; Vijay Victor ; Vijay Victor 等
期刊名称：Economies
印刷版ISSN：2227-7099
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：1
页码：73
DOI：10.3390/economies9020073
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：The recession in India and the UK peaked in 2017 due to the implications of new policy initiatives. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 intensified the crisis, causing a drastic decline in aggregate demand and output. India and the UK have resorted to monetary and fiscal stimulus packages to face the economic crisis. This study investigated the inflation–unemployment dynamics during the recession and COVID-19 times in India and the UK. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), the results of this study revealed that the recession had given way to stagflation in India. In contrast, in the UK, it has led to a more severe recession in the short-run. During the downturn, policy initiatives aggravate the recession and eventually turn to stagflation in India due to inflation caused by the weak supply side. However, in the UK, the policy initiatives during this downturn pushed the economy into a deeper recession due to reduced demand. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a similar recessionary impact on both economies. A time horizon based recovery plan is suggested to help the economies recover from stagflation and even deeper recession. This framework could enable policymakers to choose the right path of recovery within the shortest possible time.