文章基本信息

标题：全国貨物流動を対象としたトンキロベースの海運モーダルシフト評価
本地全文：下载
作者：松倉洋史 ; 瀬田剛広 ; 稗方和夫等
期刊名称：日本船舶海洋工学会論文集
印刷版ISSN：1880-3717
电子版ISSN：1881-1760
出版年度：2013
卷号：18
页码：177-188
DOI：10.2534/jjasnaoe.18.177
语种：Japanese
出版社：社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会
摘要：Modal shift has a lot of merits in environmental and transport safety aspects, but it does not seem that it spreads enough in cargo transportation in Japan. To get effective policies for promoting it, the transportation simulator which can estimate quantitative effect of transportation system change is useful. In this paper, we develop cargo flow simulator by using disaggregate nested logit model to analyze changes by effects of policies and economic situation. The simulator we develop is a detailed one in which whole country is divided into 207 livelihood spheres, 7x2 patterns of carriage modes are considered and whole inter-domestic cargo flows are treated for each class of articles. It has enough reproducibility, and with the simulator we estimate the effect of cargo lot size and modal shift potential besides lead time and transport cost on ton-kilo basis to get basic guiding principles for achieving further modal shift.