文章基本信息

标题：リスク評価に基づく船体縦曲げ最終強度の目標安全性の検討
本地全文：下载
作者：飯島一博 ; 藤久保昌彦
期刊名称：日本船舶海洋工学会論文集
印刷版ISSN：1880-3717
电子版ISSN：1881-1760
出版年度：2011
卷号：13
页码：137-146
DOI：10.2534/jjasnaoe.13.137
语种：Japanese
出版社：社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会
摘要：In this study, the target reliability level of ships' ultimate hull girder strength is investigated by employing risk assessment. The risk can be defined as "Risk = Failure probability x Consequence." In the present case, the failure probability corresponds to the probability of hull girder collapse in bending while the consequence to a monetary loss accompanied by the failure. First, a risk model for the hull girder collapse and the limit state function are set up. Uncertainty models for the various parameters in the limit state function for the hull girder collapse are investigated. Among them are the yielding stress, plate thickness, corrosion, wave randomness, nonlinearity of wave loads, and so on. A series of reliability analysis is performed to obtain the relation between the safety level and deck plate thickness as a risk control option. Then, the target reliability level is investigated through Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). It is shown that the obtained target reliability level is close to the reliability level of the existing ships whose design complies with the current Common Structural Rules. Finally, a sensitivity study is conducted to investigate into the impact of the risk model parameters to the target safety levels. It is discussed how different views may affect the target safety levels.