文章基本信息

标题：Non-Stationary Modeling of Microlevel Road-Curve Crash Frequency with Geographically Weighted Regression
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作者：Ce Wang ; Shuo Li ; Jie Shan 等
期刊名称：ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
电子版ISSN：2220-9964
出版年度：2021
卷号：10
期号：5
页码：286
DOI：10.3390/ijgi10050286
语种：English
出版社：MDPI AG
摘要：Vehicle crashes on roads are caused by many factors. However, the influence of these factors is not necessarily homogenous across locations, which is a challenge for non-stationary modeling approaches. To address this problem, this paper adopts two types of methods allowing parameters to fluctuate among observations, that is, the random parameter approach and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach. With road curvature, curve length, pavement friction, and traffic volume as independent variables, vehicle crash frequencies are modeled by two non-spatial methods, including the negative binomial (NB) model and random parameter negative binomial (RPNB), as well as three spatial methods (GWR approach). These models are calibrated in microlevel using a dataset of 9415 horizontal curve segments with a total length of 1545 kilometers for a period of three years (2016–2018) over the State of Indiana. The results revealed that the GWR approach can capture spatial heterogeneity and therefore significantly outperforms the conventional non-spatial approach. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), geographically weighted negative binomial regression (GWNBR) was proved to be a superior approach for statewide microlevel crash analysis.