文章基本信息

标题：Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020
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作者：Peter A. Hall ; Gabor Kiss ; Tilman Kuhn 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation
印刷版ISSN：2327-4018
电子版ISSN：2327-4026
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：2
页码：91-110
DOI：10.4236/ojmsi.2021.92006
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.
关键词：Pandemic;Epidemic;SARS-CoV-2;COVID-19;Compartmental Model;SEIR Model;Basic Reproduction Number;Effective Reproduction Number;Parameter Estimates;Fitted Model