文章基本信息

标题：Bayesian Mixture Modelling for Mortality Projection
本地全文：下载
作者：Jackie Li ; Jackie Li ; Jackie Li 等
期刊名称：Risks
印刷版ISSN：2227-9091
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：1
页码：76
DOI：10.3390/risks9040076
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Although a large number of mortality projection models have been proposed in the literature, relatively little attention has been paid to a formal assessment of the effect of model uncertainty. In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework for embedding more than one mortality projection model and utilise the finite mixture model concept to allow for the blending of model structures. Under this framework, the varying features of different model structures can be exploited jointly and coherently to have a more detailed description of the underlying mortality patterns. We show that the proposed Bayesian approach performs well in fitting and forecasting Japanese mortality.