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  • 标题:Nonparametric Estimation of Extreme Quantiles with an Application to Longevity Risk
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Catalina Bolancé ; Catalina Bolancé ; Catalina Bolancé
  • 期刊名称:Risks
  • 印刷版ISSN:2227-9091
  • 出版年度:2021
  • 卷号:9
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:77
  • DOI:10.3390/risks9040077
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:MDPI, Open Access Journal
  • 摘要:A new method to estimate longevity risk based on the kernel estimation of the extreme quantiles of truncated age-at-death distributions is proposed. Its theoretical properties are presented and a simulation study is reported. The flexible yet accurate estimation of extreme quantiles of age-at-death conditional on having survived a certain age is fundamental for evaluating the risk of lifetime insurance. Our proposal combines a parametric distributions with nonparametric sample information, leading to obtain an asymptotic unbiased estimator of extreme quantiles for alternative distributions with different right tail shape, i.e., heavy tail or exponential tail. A method for estimating the longevity risk of a continuous temporary annuity is also shown. We illustrate our proposal with an application to the official age-at-death statistics of the population in Spain.
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