文章基本信息

标题：The Importance of Betting Early
本地全文：下载
作者：Alessandro Innocenti ; Alessandro Innocenti ; Alessandro Innocenti 等
期刊名称：Risks
印刷版ISSN：2227-9091
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：1
页码：67
DOI：10.3390/risks9040067
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：We evaluate the impact of timing on decision outcomes when both the timing and the relevant decision are chosen under uncertainty. Sports betting provides the testing ground, as we exploit an original dataset containing more than one million online bets on games of the Italian Major Soccer League. We find that individuals perform systematically better when they place their bets farther away from the game day. The better performance of early bettors holds controlling for (time-invariant) unobservable ability, learning during the season, and timing of the odds. We attribute this result to the increase of noisy information on game day, which hampers the capacity of late (non-professional) bettors to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last game results. We also find that more successful bettors tend to bet in advance, focus on a smaller set of events, and prefer games associated with smaller betting odds.