文章基本信息

标题：Fragmentation of International Production and Business Cycle Synchronization: New Evidence pre and during Global Financial Crises
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作者：Norrana Khidil ; Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi ; Zulkefly Abdul Karim 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2021
卷号：13
期号：8
页码：4131
DOI：10.3390/su13084131
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Understanding the link between the fragmentation of international production (FIP) and business cycle synchronization (BCS) is crucial because it affects the world economic stability and hence hampers the sustainability in world trade, world production, and the world supply chain. Following that, this paper investigates the effects of fragmentation in an international production (FIP) on business cycle synchronization (BCS) amongst 38 countries (29 OECD and nine non-OECD countries) for two different periods; pre-crisis (2003–2007) and during the crisis period (2008–2012). This study uses a dynamic panel system GMM estimation in analyzing the effect of FIP on BSC by controlling other explanatory variables, namely, trade linkages and financial openness. Unlike many previous results, the main findings reveal that FIP positively and significantly affects BCS during a crisis period. However, it shows an insignificant effect during the normal period. In other words, FIP would amplify the synchronization of output downfall during the crisis period. Trade linkages have a negative and significant relationship with BCS in both periods, whereas financial openness has a negative and significant relationship with BCS during the normal period. The study suggests that selective measures have to be undertaken in implementing FIP during the crisis period to reduce the negative impact of BCS. Increasing trade and financial activities, on the other hand, would be beneficial for the countries as they would reduce the negative effect of BCS during the crisis period.
关键词：international trade; fragmentation in international production; synchronization of business cycles; generalized methods of moment (GMM)