文章基本信息

标题：A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes
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作者：André Souza Oliveira ; Raphael Oliveira dos Santos ; Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2021
卷号：13
期号：7
页码：3766
DOI：10.3390/su13073766
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：In this study, GMAW and CMT welding technologies were evaluated in terms of their technological lifecycles based on their patent datasets together with the S-curve concept, and the joints were evaluated in terms of their welding characteristics. To predict the future trends for both technologies, different models based on the time-series and growth-curve methods were tested. From a process point of view, the results showed better performance and stability for the CMT process based on the heat input to the base material and the frequency of the short circuits. The temperature distribution in the sample revealed that the GMAW process delivers higher values and, consequently, greater heat transfer. Regarding the technological lifecycle, the analyses revealed that the CMT welding process, despite being recent, is already in its mature phase. Moreover, the GMAW welding process is positioned in the growth phase on the S-curve, indicating a possibility of advancement. The main findings indicated that through mathematical modelling, it is possible to predict, in a precise way, the inflection points and the maturity phases of each technology and chart their trends with expert opinions. The new perspectives for analysing maturity levels and welding characteristics presented herein will be essential for a broaden decision-making market process.
关键词：S-curve; technology lifecycle; GMAW; CMT