文章基本信息

标题：Dynamic Analysis of Criminal Behavior: An Application of EmpiricalMode Decomposition
本地全文：下载
作者：Raphael Douglas de Freitas Lucena ; Rodolfo Ferreira Ribeiro Costa ; Ivan Castelar 等
期刊名称：International Journal of Statistics and Probability
印刷版ISSN：1927-7032
电子版ISSN：1927-7040
出版年度：2021
卷号：13
期号：4
页码：47-56
DOI：10.5539/ijef.v13n4p47
语种：English
出版社：Canadian Center of Science and Education
摘要：Our objective is to measure the permanent and transitory components of criminality in Brazilian states by using themethodology proposed by At and Chappe (2005). The empirical strategy used follows the Empirical ModeDecomposition method (EMD), proposed by Huang et al. (1998). Based on a sample collected using the MortalityInformation System (SIM) from DATASUS, the decomposition process was carried out for the 27 Brazilian statesfrom 1996 to 2015. The results of the decomposition for criminality show that the choice for crime occurs, for thelargest part, due to permanent elements, which is a predictor of future crimes over time. The decomposition ofcriminality into these two types of components establishes some evidence regarding criminal behavior that canserve as reference for policy makers, since the implications of the results found raise questions about the policies toconfront and reduce crime.
关键词：time series;criminality;empirical mode decomposition;Brazilian States