文章基本信息

标题：Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019
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作者：Uma S. Bhatt ; Rick T. Lader ; John E. Walsh 等
期刊名称：Land
印刷版ISSN：2073-445X
出版年度：2021
卷号：10
期号：1
页码：82
DOI：10.3390/land10010082
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–80 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.