文章基本信息

标题：A new, non-canonical Poisson regression model for the prediction of crashes on low-volume rural roads
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作者：Abishai Polus ; Moshe Cohen
期刊名称：IATSS Research
印刷版ISSN：0386-1112
出版年度：2012
卷号：35
期号：2
页码：98-103
DOI：10.1016/j.iatssr.2011.09.001
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：The purpose of the study was to compare the prediction power of a simplified non-canonical Poisson crash-prediction model to other model types. The model, fitted to serious and fatal crash data from 86 two-lane low-volume rural highway segments, showed a good fit, which was not significantly different from that of a negative binomial model. The application of the present model uses the linear form of the non-canonical Poisson model. Hence the simplification of the model versus other models results from the finding that the expected number of crashes per 1 km is directly proportional to the daily volume, unlike logarithmic functions in other models. In the non-canonical model, it is necessary to estimate only one parameter, whereas estimations of more parameters are needed in the negative binomial model.
关键词：Traffic safety;Rural crashes;Poisson regression;Crash prediction;Two-lane highways