文章基本信息

标题：The Return of Wooded Landscapes in Wales: An Exploration of Possible Post-Brexit Futures
本地全文：下载
作者：Syed Amir Manzoor ; Geoffrey Griffiths ; David Christian Rose 等
期刊名称：Land
印刷版ISSN：2073-445X
出版年度：2021
卷号：10
期号：1
页码：59
DOI：10.3390/land10010059
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Changes in agricultural policy may have a rapid impact, even on landscapes which have taken millennia to form. Here we explore the potential impact of the UK leaving the EU as a catalyst for profound changes in the pastoral landscapes of Wales. Impending change of the trading regime governing agricultural produce, concurrent with public pressure to use agricultural subsidies for environmental goals, may lead to unforeseen consequences for the Welsh natural environment. We employ a combination of change demand modelling and a ‘story and simulation approach’ to project the effect of five hypothetical plausible scenarios on land use and land use change in Wales by 2030. We show that the most extreme trade scenario would result in a significant expansion of broadleaf woodland across much of Wales. By contrast, the ‘green futures’ scenario introduced to supersede the Common Agricultural Policy, results in significant expansion of woodland but not at the level seen with the more extreme trade scenarios.