文章基本信息

标题：Robust Management of Systemic Risks and Food-Water-Energy-Environmental Security: Two-Stage Strategic-Adaptive GLOBIOM Model
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作者：Tatiana Ermolieva ; Petr Havlik ; Yuri Ermoliev 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2021
卷号：13
期号：2
页码：857
DOI：10.3390/su13020857
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Critical imbalances and threshold exceedances can trigger a disruption in a network of interdependent systems. An insignificant-at-first-glance shock can induce systemic risks with cascading catastrophic impacts. Systemic risks challenge traditional risk assessment and management approaches. These risks are shaped by systemic interactions, risk exposures, and decisions of various agents. The paper discusses the need for the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) approach that enables the design of a robust portfolio of precautionary strategic and operational adaptive decisions that makes the interdependent systems flexible and robust with respect to risks of all kinds. We established a connection between the robust quantile-based non-smooth estimation problem in statistics and the two-stage non-smooth STO problem of robust strategic–adaptive decision-making. The coexistence of complementary strategic and adaptive decisions induces systemic risk aversion in the form of Value-at-Risk (VaR) quantile-based risk constraints. The two-stage robust decision-making is implemented into a large-scale Global Biosphere Management (GLOBIOM) model, showing that robust management of systemic risks can be addressed by solving a system of probabilistic security equations. Selected numerical results emphasize that a robust combination of interdependent strategic and adaptive solutions presents qualitatively new policy recommendations, if compared to a traditional scenario-by-scenario decision-making analysis.