摘要:Highlights•A Richards equation-based soil water model was combined with an evapotranspiration model to compute drainage and crop water stress resulting from irrigation within a MATLAB programming environment.•Monte Carlo sampling was used to simulate how uncertainty in soil parameters and evapotranspiration propagates into predictions of drainage, water use and crop water stress.•Soil water pressure head was used as a threshold value to indicate crop water stress based on soil profile interactions with the crop root zone.AbstractThere is a necessity to increase the performance of food production in agriculture, this means, that precise management support in farming systems is required to reduce water use and drainage while avoiding crop stress. Management support based on model predictions is used to increase the performance of food production. However, sources of uncertainty affect the model predictions. Uncertainty in soil properties and uncertain evapotranspiration translate into uncertain predictions, and consequently in risk of performance loss. This paper presents the code and method to analyze performance uncertainty (and risk of performance loss) due to uncertain circumstances. The method is based on using the De Graaf evapotranspiration model and the EMMAN3G model, a Richards equation-based soil water model, as modules to conduct a performance uncertainty study.Graphical abstractDisplay Omitted