文章基本信息

标题：The Mosquito, the Virus, the Climate: An Unforeseen Réunion in 2018
本地全文：下载
作者：Laurel DiSera ; Henrik Sjödin ; Joacim Rocklöv 等
期刊名称：GeoHealth
印刷版ISSN：2471-1403
电子版ISSN：2471-1403
出版年度：2020
卷号：4
期号：8
页码：1-10
DOI：10.1029/2020GH000253
语种：English
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
摘要：AbstractThe 2018 outbreak of dengue in the French overseas department of Réunion was unprecedented in size and spread across the island. This research focuses on the cause of the outbreak, asserting that climate played a large role in the proliferation of theAedes albopictusmosquitoes, which transmitted the disease, and led to the dengue outbreak in early 2018. A stage‐structured model was run using observed temperature and rainfall data to simulate the life cycle and abundance of theAe. albopictusmosquito. Further, the model was forced with bias‐corrected subseasonal forecasts to determine if the event could have been forecast up to 4 weeks in advance. With unseasonably warm temperatures remaining above 25°C, along with large tropical‐cyclone‐related rainfall events accumulating 10–15 mm per event, the modeledAe. albopictusmosquito abundance did not decrease during the second half of 2017, contrary to the normal behavior, likely contributing to the large dengue outbreak in early 2018. Although subseasonal forecasts of rainfall for the December–January period in Réunion are skillful up to 4 weeks in advance, the outbreak could only have been forecast 2 weeks in advance, which along with seasonal forecast information could have provided enough time to enhance preparedness measures. Our research demonstrates the potential of using state‐of‐the‐art subseasonal climate forecasts to produce actionable subseasonal dengue predictions. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time subseasonal forecasts have been used this way.Plain Language SummaryBetween December 2017 and February 2018, there was a large outbreak of dengue in the French overseas department of Réunion. Tropical‐cyclone‐related rainfall events and higher‐than‐average temperatures played a role in the dengue outbreak, which could have been forecast 4 weeks in advance. The size of theAedes albopictusmosquito population in Réunion was modeled with temperature and rainfall data to replicate the population size that would have been present during the time of the outbreak. Rainfall and temperature forecasts were input into the mosquito model, for 1 to 4 weeks prior to the target date of 8 January, to better understand if the increased mosquito population could have been calculated in advance. Due to abnormally warm temperatures hovering around 25°C for most of the year, along with large rainfall events during the 2017–2018 transition, the mosquito population did not diminish toward the end of 2017, contrary to normal behavior, likely contributing to the large dengue outbreak in early 2018. Additionally, model results suggest accurate prediction of the onset and size of the outbreak 2 weeks in advance, which could have provided enough time to enhance preparedness measures.Key PointsUnseasonably warm temperatures and increased tropical‐cyclone‐related rainfall led to the large 2018 dengue outbreak in RéunionSubseasonal forecasts successfully predicted temperature and rainfall events in Réunion, up to 4 weeks in advanceForecasts would have provided enough lead time to activate early‐warning systems, vector‐control strategies, and medical readiness
关键词：denguesubseasonal forecastAedes albopictusRéunionoutbreak