文章基本信息

标题：Estimated Benefits of Incremental Suppression of Covid-19 Spread
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作者：Chi Keung Woo ; Kang Hua Cao ; Yun Lyndon Liu 等
期刊名称：Open Access Library Journal
印刷版ISSN：2333-9705
电子版ISSN：2333-9721
出版年度：2020
卷号：7
期号：8
页码：1-13
DOI：10.4236/oalib.1106645
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：Estimated benefits are necessary for a cost benefit analysis of Covid-19 suppression. We propose a stock-market-based approach to estimate the benefits of incremental suppression of Covid-19’s spread that will last till no new cases are recorded for 14 days, the projected incubation period of Covid-19. This approach’s empirical implementation uses a) total capitalization of 14 market indices for large cap stocks; and b) an index’s estimated elasticity of cumulative confirmed cases (CCC) obtained from a panel data analysis of 727 daily observations in the period of 01/21/2020-04/03/2020. Our estimated benefits of a hypothetical 10% reduction in CCC due to incremental suppression are statistically significant (p-value < 0.05), ranging from US$0.76 billion for Singapore to US$70 billion for the US. As the S & P 500 index’s capitalization is 70% - 80% of the US total market capitalization, the adjusted US benefit estimate is up to US$100 billion. Finally, we verify that these estimated benefits are empirically reasonable.
关键词：Covid-19Suppression BenefitStock Markets