文章基本信息

标题：Logistic Approach to COVID-19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil
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作者：Altair Souza de Assis ; Vinicius Werneck de Carvalho
期刊名称：Open Access Library Journal
印刷版ISSN：2333-9705
电子版ISSN：2333-9721
出版年度：2020
卷号：7
期号：8
页码：1-18
DOI：10.4236/oalib.1106600
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：We present in this paper the temporal evolution of the contaminated population by coronavirus in Brazil and globally. We access those information analytically and numerically using a logistic model. Using the COVID-19 data from The Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS), from The World Health Organization—WHO, and from The Niteroi Health Foundation (FMS), we plot the curves for the contaminated population ramping-up, the population inflection, and the population saturation-plateau regime. Based on the simulations, and considering this more advanced phase of the pandemic, we present some action insights, which might be useful to generate more effectiveness in the actions of society in general, and also to create a more intense public awareness on the contamination hubs and surges that may emerge due to the reduction of social isolation at this more advanced phase of the pandemic.
关键词：New CoronavirusCOVID-19Dynamic ModelsLogistic ModelPredator-Prey ModelDynastic modelContamination InflexionContamination Saturation-Plateau RegimeSocial Isolation