文章基本信息

标题：End-of-life Vehicle Amount Forecasting based on an Improved GM (1, 1) Model
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作者：Fuli Zhou ; Panpan Ma
期刊名称：Engineering Letters
印刷版ISSN：1816-093X
电子版ISSN：1816-0948
出版年度：2020
卷号：28
期号：3
页码：777-782
语种：English
出版社：Newswood Ltd
摘要：With a rapidly increasing of vehicle productionand powerful purchasing capability of Chinese consumers, theautomobile ownership will keep a raising tendency in Chinesemarket. End-of-life vehicle (ELV) recycling contributes tosustainability achievement of the automobile supply chain, aswell as the improvement of resource utilization. To providemore evidence on strategic plan of ELV recycling industry andrenewable sector with precise ELV amounts, a modified GM (1,1) model is improved to make the predication in terms of ELVrecycling. Specifically, the residual error and time responsefunction are developed to improve the accuracy of forecastingmodel. Taking ELV recycling amounts from 2015 to 2018 asexperimental samples, numerical results show that the ELVrecycling amount in 2019 is about 2.2 million. In addition, themodified GM (1, 1) model demonstrates a better performanceand superior availability comparing with the traditional GM (1,1) model and regression forecasting models.
关键词：End-of-life vehicle (ELV); recycling amount; improved GM (1 1); forecasting; residual error amendment