文章基本信息

标题：Estimating the Use of Public Lands: Integrated Modeling of Open Populations with Convolution Likelihood Ecological Abundance Regression
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作者：Lutz F. Gruber ; Erica F. Stuber ; Lyndsie S. Wszola 等
期刊名称：Bayesian Analysis
印刷版ISSN：1931-6690
电子版ISSN：1936-0975
出版年度：2019
卷号：14
期号：4
页码：1173-1199
DOI：10.1214/19-BA1152
语种：English
出版社：International Society for Bayesian Analysis
摘要：We present an integrated open population model where the population dynamics are defined by a differential equation, and the related statistical model utilizes a Poisson binomial convolution likelihood. Key advantages of the proposed approach over existing open population models include the flexibility to predict related, but unobserved quantities such as total immigration or emigration over a specified time period, and more computationally efficient posterior simulation by elimination of the need to explicitly simulate latent immigration and emigration. The viability of the proposed method is shown in an in-depth analysis of outdoor recreation participation on public lands, where the surveyed populations changed rapidly and demographic population closure cannot be assumed even within a single day.
关键词：integrated population model; panel data methods; discrete valued distributions; unevenly spaced time series