文章基本信息

标题：When Should We Start the Lockdown and How Long Should It Be?
本地全文：下载
作者：Yasunori Fujita
期刊名称：Modern Economy
印刷版ISSN：2152-7245
电子版ISSN：2152-7261
出版年度：2020
卷号：11
期号：5
页码：1007-1011
DOI：10.4236/me.2020.115075
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：As the new coronavirus spreads around the world, some countries have already gone into the lockdown; other countries are ready for it. Given this fact, the present paper investigates the optimal start time of the lockdown and its length, by constructing a stochastic model based on optimal stopping theory. We reveal that if the lockdown does not damage the economy so much, the government should start the lockdown earlier and make it longer. We also show that if uncertainty increases, the government should postpone the start of the lockdown, keeping its length unchanged.
关键词：Coronavirus;Lockdown;Optimal Stopping Theory;Value of Waiting