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标题：Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators
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作者：Rabin, Sam S. ; Alexander, Peter ; Henry, Roslyn 等
期刊名称：Earth System Dynamics
电子版ISSN：2190-4995
出版年度：2020
卷号：11
期号：2
页码：357-376
DOI：10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
语种：English
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations,changing climate, growing human populations, and shiftingsocioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural systemwill need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes willaffect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems ingeneral. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resultingimpacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbonsequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. Weadditionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use,constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers tothe projected impacts. Some ecosystem services depend critically onland use and management: for example, carbon storage, the gain inwhich is more than 2.5 times higher in a low-LUC scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0; SSP4-60)than a high-LUC one with the same carbon dioxide and climatetrajectory (SSP3-60). Other trends are mostly dominated by thedirect effects of climate change and carbon dioxide increase. Forexample, in those two scenarios, extreme high monthly runoffincreases across 54 % and 53 % of land,respectively, with a mean increase of 23 % inboth. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult(SSPs 3 and 5) have the strongest impactson ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13 %–19 %of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28 % increase innitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem serviceindicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffsand co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigationand adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.