文章基本信息

标题：A Bayesian Framework for Exoplanet Direct Detection and Non-detection
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作者：Jean-Baptiste Ruffio ; Dimitri Mawet ; Ian Czekala 等
期刊名称：The Astronomical journal
印刷版ISSN：0004-6256
电子版ISSN：1538-3881
出版年度：2018
卷号：156
期号：5
页码：1-16
DOI：10.3847/1538-3881/aade95
语种：English
出版社：American Institute of Physics
摘要：Rigorously quantifying the information in high-contrast imaging data is important for informing follow-up strategies to confirm the substellar nature of a point source, constraining theoretical models of planet–disk interactions, and deriving planet occurrence rates. However, within the exoplanet direct imaging community, non-detections have almost exclusively been defined using a frequentist detection threshold (i.e., contrast curve) and associated completeness. This can lead to conceptual inconsistencies when included in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian upper limit is such that the true value of a parameter lies below this limit with a certain probability. The associated probability is the integral of the posterior distribution with the upper limit as the upper bound. In summary, a frequentist upper limit is a statement about the detectability of planets while a Bayesian upper limit is a statement about the probability of a parameter to lie in an interval given the data. The latter is therefore better suited for rejecting hypotheses or theoretical models based on their predictions. In this work we emphasize that Bayesian statistics and upper limits are more easily interpreted and typically more constraining than the frequentist approach. We illustrate the use of Bayesian analysis in two different cases: (1) with a known planet location where we also propose to use model comparison to constrain the astrophysical nature of the point source and (2) gap-carving planets in TW Hya. To finish, we also mention the problem of combining radial velocity and direct imaging observations.
关键词：instrumentation: adaptive optics;instrumentation: high angular resolution;methods: statistical;planetary systems;planet–disk interactions;planets and satellites: detection