文章基本信息

标题：Partial information framework: Model-based aggregation of estimates from diverse information sources
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作者：Ville A. Satopää ; Shane T. Jensen ; Robin Pemantle 等
期刊名称：Electronic Journal of Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1935-7524
出版年度：2017
卷号：11
期号：2
页码：3781-3814
DOI：10.1214/17-EJS1346
语种：English
出版社：Institute of Mathematical Statistics
摘要：Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically, randomness in scientific estimation has been generally assumed to arise from unmeasured factors which are viewed as measurement noise. However, when combining subjective estimates, heterogeneity stemming from differences in the participants’ information is often more important than measurement noise. This paper formalizes information diversity as an alternative source of such heterogeneity and introduces a novel modeling framework that is particularly well-suited for prediction polls. A practical specification of this framework is proposed and applied to the task of aggregating probability and point estimates from two real-world prediction polls. In both cases our model outperforms standard measurement-error-based aggregators, hence providing evidence in favor of information diversity being the more important source of heterogeneity.