文章基本信息

标题：A Bayesian approach for a zero modified Poisson model to predict match outcomes applied to the 2012–13 La Liga season
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作者：Katiane S. Conceição ; Adriano K. Suzuki ; Marinho G. Andrade 等
期刊名称：Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
印刷版ISSN：0103-0752
出版年度：2017
卷号：31
期号：4
页码：746-764
DOI：10.1214/17-BJPS379
语种：English
出版社：Brazilian Statistical Association
摘要：In any sports competition, strong interest is devoted to the knowledge on the team that will be champion. The result of a match, the chance of a team either qualifying for a specific tournament, or relegating, the best attack and defense are all topics of interest. This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for modeling the number of goals scored by a team based on Zero-Modified Poisson distribution. An important advantage of this distribution is the flexibility in modeling count data without previous knowledge of the sampling characteristic with respect to the frequency of zeros (inflated, standard, deflation). These characteristics are present in the data sets referring to the number of goals scored by different teams. Inference procedures and computational simulation studies are also discussed. The proposed methodology was applied to the 2012–13 La Liga and the results were compared with those of the Poisson model using the De Finetti measure an percentage of correct predictions.